For Austin area, a weekend of long sleeves and damp pant cuffs



Highlights

Highs are expected to drop into the 50s, with as much as 3 inches of slow, soaking rain in the forecast.

That rain will result from a warm front that moves into Texas from the Gulf and stalls south of San Antonio.

This weekend, Central Texans will probably be reminded that winter has a downside.

Forecasters expect high temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 40s, with possible scattered thunderstorms and perhaps as much as 3 inches falling in some spots between Friday and Monday. Camp Mabry normally sees about 2.4 inches for the entire month of December.

Stand outside in one place for 12 hours and the odds of getting wet are 60 percent on Friday, 80 percent on Friday night, 90 percent on Saturday, 70 percent on Saturday night and Sunday, and 40 percent on Monday night, according to the National Weather Service forecast Thursday afternoon.

November brought a few cool days and a few rainy days, but never at the same time — until now. Although Friday’s high is expected to be around 64— only a few degrees below normal — temperatures on Saturday and Sunday are supposed to peak at 55 degrees, about 10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.

This will probably be the coldest, wettest and (even without another University of Texas loss in football) dreariest weekend in some time. Pant cuffs might be dampened.

“We’re expecting multiple rounds of light to moderate rainfall,” said Jared Allen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Deluges are unlikely, he said, meaning that flash floods are also unlikely, even with several inches of rain possible.

That rain will be the result of a warm front that moves into Texas from the Gulf and stalls south of San Antonio, Allen and University of Texas meteorologist Troy Kimmel said. As the front stalls, unstable air higher in the atmosphere should move into Texas from Mexico. The meteorological mixture of unstable air and moisture is expected to create the rain storms.

“We’ll see a little break in the weather by Tuesday of next week with a mix of clouds and sunshine expected,” Kimmel wrote on his blog.

The rainy weather is probably a fitting start to winter, which began — at least according to the meteorological definition — on Thursday. But most Central Texas forecasters say a warmer and drier than normal winter is probably in the offing.

Surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are cooler than average, which makes the atmosphere above the Eastern Pacific stable and ultimately tends to push storms well north of the Lone Star State. That, in turn, tends to mean warmer and drier conditions. La Niña, as the weather pattern is known, is basically the bizarro twin of El Niño, the pattern characterized by warming ocean temperatures that made last fall and winter among the wettest periods on record for the Austin metro area.


Reader Comments


Next Up in Weather

Here’s which weekend events are cancelled due to weather
Here’s which weekend events are cancelled due to weather
Watch out for wetness. There’s a 60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms in the Austin metro area Friday, and precipitation...
Thanksgiving Weekend to bring mostly cloudy skies
Thanksgiving weekend will bring mostly cloudy skies, according to the National Weather Service.Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a high near 68 and...
Could we actually be headed for a cold winter, multiple freezes?
Could we actually be headed for a cold winter, multiple freezes?
Conventional meteorological wisdom — based on generally understood climate science — suggests Central Texas is in for a winter that is...
Cedar fever could be even worse than normal this year – so get ready
Cedar fever could be even worse than normal this year – so get ready
Photo by Ralph Barrera This winter could be a particularly nasty season for cedar fever. Central Texas is coming off a year of rainy weather, which...
Crisp weather for Thanksgiving Day
Fall arrived in time for the Thanksgiving weekend this year, with cool (by Central Texas standards) temperatures and clear skies expected for the...
More Stories

You have reached your limit of free articles this month.

Enjoy unlimited access to myStatesman.com.

Starting at just 99¢ for 8 weeks.

GREAT REASONS TO SUBSCRIBE TODAY!

  • IN-DEPTH REPORTING
  • INTERACTIVE STORYTELLING
  • NEW TOPICS & COVERAGE
  • ePAPER
X

You have read of free premium articles.

Get unlimited access to all of our breaking news, in-depth coverage and bonus content- exclusively for subscribers. Starting at just 99¢ for 8 weeks.

X

Welcome to myStatesman.com

This subscriber-only site gives you exclusive access to breaking news, in-depth coverage, exclusive interactives and bonus content.

You can read free articles of your choice a month that are only available on myStatesman.com.