Krauthammer: With North Korea, we do have cards to play


Given that Pyongyang has had nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles for more than a decade, why the panic now? Because North Korea is headed for a nuclear breakout. The regime has openly declared that it is racing to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the United States — and thus destroy an American city at a Kim Jong Un push of a button.

The North Koreans are not bluffing. They’ve made significant progress with solid-fuel rockets, which are more quickly deployable and thus more easily hidden and less subject to detection and pre-emption.

At the same time, Pyongyang has been steadily adding to its supply of nuclear weapons. Today it has an estimated 10 to 16. By 2020, it could very well have a hundred. (For context: the British are thought to have about 200.)

Hence the crisis. We simply cannot concede to Kim Jong Un the capacity to annihilate American cities.

Some will argue for deterrence. If it held off the Russians and the Chinese for all these years, why not the North Koreans? First, because deterrence, even with a rational adversary like the old Soviet Union, is never a sure thing. We came pretty close to nuclear war in October 1962.

And second, because North Korea’s regime is bizarre in the extreme, a hermit kingdom run by a weird, utterly ruthless and highly erratic god-king.

If not deterrence, then prevention. But how? The best hope is for China to exercise its influence and induce North Korea to give up its programs.

For years, the Chinese made gestures, but never did anything remotely decisive. They have their reasons. It’s not just that they fear a massive influx of refugees if the Kim regime disintegrates. It’s also that Pyongyang is a perpetual thorn in the side of the Americans, whereas regime collapse brings South Korea (and thus America) right up to the Yalu River.

So why would the Chinese do our bidding now?

For a variety of reasons.

— They don’t mind tension but they don’t want war.

— Chinese interests are being significantly damaged by the erection of regional missile defenses to counteract North Korea’s nukes.

— For China to do nothing risks the return of the American tactical nukes in South Korea, withdrawn in 1991.

— If the crisis deepens, the possibility arises of South Korea and, most importantly, Japan going nuclear themselves. The latter is the ultimate Chinese nightmare.

These are major cards America can play. Our objective should be clear.

Because Beijing has such a strong interest in the current regime, we could sweeten the latter offer by abjuring Korean reunification. This would not be Germany, where the communist state was absorbed into the West. We would accept an independent, but Finlandized, North.

Here we would guarantee that a new North Korea would be independent but always oriented toward China.

There are deals to be made. They may have to be underpinned by demonstrations of American resolve. A pre-emptive attack on North Korea’s nuclear facilities and missile sites would be too dangerous, as it would almost surely precipitate an invasion of South Korea with untold millions of casualties. We might, however, try to shoot down a North Korean missile in mid-flight to demonstrate both our capacity to defend ourselves and the futility of a North Korean missile force that can be neutralized technologically.

The Korea crisis is real and growing. But we are not helpless. We have choices. We have assets. It’s time to deploy them.



Reader Comments ...


Next Up in Opinion

Letters to the editor: Aug. 21, 2017
Letters to the editor: Aug. 21, 2017

Re: Aug. 16 article, “Confederate rally set for Austin on heels of Charlottesville outcry.” It is hard to believe that after what happened in Virginia that Austin would allow such an event to occur. There is no reason to honor Confederate heritage. This is a time in the South’s history that we should be moving away from, not honoring...
Two Views: There’s a silver lining in Trump’s Charlottesville comments
Two Views: There’s a silver lining in Trump’s Charlottesville comments

President Donald Trump’s slowness to condemn the Charlottesville violence, and then subsequent comments where he stated there was “blame on both sides,” produced outrage — and rightly so. But it wasn’t until after Trump’s news conference did we witness people speaking out against his comments specifically. Republican...
Two Views: Why the U.S. will never transcend white supremacy
Two Views: Why the U.S. will never transcend white supremacy

Now that the violence in Charlottesville, Va., has forced “white supremacy” into our political vocabulary, let’s ask an uncomfortable question: When will the United States transcend white supremacy? My question isn’t: “What should we do about the overt white supremacists who, emboldened by Trumpism’s success, have...
Opinion: Is the party of Lincoln now the party of Lee?

This year will mark my 30th anniversary as a syndicated columnist. During these years, I have written more words than I would have preferred about race. But race is America’s great moral stain and unending challenge. I’ve tackled school choice, affirmative action, transracial adoption, crime, police conduct, family structure, poverty, free-enterprise...
Letters to the editor: Aug. 20, 2017

To those who say that Confederate memorials do not support racism but merely celebrate culture — and that men like Robert E. Lee did good deeds other than their participation in the Civil War — I ask, “Why should we be publicly honoring traitors at all?” Benedict Arnold was a fine general and a worthy colleague of George Washington...
More Stories