The first of the annual revisions to 2015 Texas workforce data made two things abundantly clear — that depressed energy prices hammered the state’s oil and gas workforce last year, and that Austin keeps barreling through the statewide headwinds.
Revised data released Friday by the Texas Workforce Commission showed that Austin-area employers added 9,600 more jobs than initially reported, even as energy-heavy regions suffered sharp downward revisions to their 2015 payroll figures.
All told, employers in the Austin metro area added 44,500 jobs last year, a 4.7 percent increase, according to the commission’s revised data.
Preliminary data released earlier this year suggested local employers had expanded payrolls by 3.8 percent — a remarkable enough rate in a year when many observers expected local job growth to moderate.
Rather than cooling, though, the revised data showed Central Texas payrolls expanded faster in 2015 than in the prior two years.
“That is incredible,” said Brian Kelsey, founder of Civic Analytics, an Austin-based economic development firm. “It goes to show Austin’s economic resilience in the face of strong headwinds emanating from the rest of Texas.”
The revisions to last year’s data almost made the typical January workforce chill an afterthought. As usual, the Austin metro unemployment rate ticked higher in the first month of the year, to 3.2 percent from 3.0 percent in December, the commission said.
Local employers slashed 13,000 jobs during the month, a drop of 1.3 percent, according to commission data. In fact, the commission reported only three industry sectors that added jobs in January — federal government, state government and credit intermediation and related services firms.
However, even those payroll cuts were lighter than the typical January contraction, according to commission data.
“Of course a loss of 13,000 jobs could be alarming, but we know that is the trend in January,” said Tiffany Daniels, director or communications and employer engagement at Workforce Solutions–Capital Area Workforce Board. “Seasonal hiring, contract end dates and the start of new fiscal years can all affect job creation.”
Daniels said the board saw no major layoffs during January, and the “exceptional” annual job growth rate left her “more than encouraged.” The numbers explain more about the time of year than about the health of the Central Texas labor market, she said.
In fact, after adjusting for seasonal workforce trends, Austin’s unemployment rate dropped. The commission doesn’t immediately make adjustment to its local data, but calculations by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas put Austin’s seasonally adjusted jobless rate at 3.2 percent in January, down from 3.3 percent in December.
Statewide, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked down to 4.5 percent from 4.6 percent in December, the commission said. The national jobless rate fell to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent.
On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported U.S. employment data for February. The nation’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent last month.
One of the few potential hitches in Austin’s workforce data appeared in the professional, scientific and technical services sector. Those firms, which employ many of Austin’s high-tech and white-collar workers, cut 2,400 jobs during the month, an unusually large number for a January, according to the workforce commission.
While month-to-month data can fluctuate widely, especially at the local level, the chill fit somewhat with a more cautious trend around Austin tech, said Cory Kruse, president of Novotus, a locally based staffing firm.
“I’ve seen at least in the last quarter – coming out of the holiday quarter – I’ve seen folks kind of holding off on tech hiring, at least from some of the bigger folks,” Kruse said.
What has increased, he said, is contract work. With some uncertainty about the statewide, national and global economies, companies are looking hire flex workers rather than full-time. But many workers have also moved toward contract gigs, as well.
“Someone will have one or two different jobs, more flexible,” he said, “and we’re seeing that more than two years ago when people were really hunkered down.”
The high-tech industry’s pauses and that preference for contingency staffing ebb and flow. With several large companies already hiring, like Apple, or getting ready for large expansions, like Oracle, tech hiring probably won’t stay static for long, Kruse said.
Either way, it seems less likely that the local job market will suffer any significant pain from the state’s depressed energy sector. The commission’s revisions pushed Austin’s job-creation rates higher, even as its adjustments revealed an even harsher fallout for oil and gas jobs and the regions where they’re concentrated.
According to the commission’s initial estimates, firms in the oil-and-gas extraction and mining-support industries cut 38,600 jobs across Texas in 2015. That figured ballooned to 57,700 job cuts in the revised data released Friday.
Energy-heavy Houston saw a slight upward revision, thanks to the industrial diversity that comes with such a large metro area. The heavy oil-and-gas presence in Midland and Odessa, on the other hand, left both areas with sharp downward revisions.
Midland’s total job count dropped 9.8 percent after the commission’s revisions. Odessa’s fell 12.5 percent.